TMF Alert for 02/12/14
% Signal
Open Date
Close Date
Open Target Price
Close Target Price
10%
02/06/14
02/26/14
$50.36
$51.47
20%
02/07/14
02/26/14
$50.28
$51.47
30%
02/12/14
02/26/14
$49.23
$51.47
40%
02/13/14
02/26/14
$49.94
$51.47
Total Profit: 3.28%
Commentary
Treasuries have blasted through important layers of resistance, and while they may take a breather, the model continues to call for a scaling into a long position with TMF.
As of the most recent alert, the model is calling for 100% exposure to TMF.
SPXS Alert for 02/07/14
% Signal
Open Date
Close Date
Open Target Price
Close Target Price
10%
02/07/14
02/20/14
$35.54
$33.22
Total Loss: -0.65%
Commentary
The S&P 500 has begun an upward movement within a newly bearish trend. The model has called for a 10% movement into SPXS.
TMV Alert for 02/05/14
% Signal
Open Date
Close Date
Open Target Price
Close Target Price
10%
12/31/13
02/05/14
$72.61
$61.03
20%
01/07/14
02/05/14
$70.74
$61.03
30%
01/08/14
02/05/14
$71.43
$61.03
40% with kicker
01/13/14
02/05/14
$66.70
$61.03
Total Loss: -11.69%
Commentary
As indicated in our broader market view published in Wealth Building Ideas, it has been our gowing belief that the market was preparing to shift direction with Treasuries showing a “bottoming” effect.
Precisely predicting such turning points is nearly impossible and at best one can look in the rear-view mirror and say, “Of course it would happen right here”…
So with Treasuries still in a “bearish” mode we opened short positions through TMV scaling in from 12/31/13 through to 01/13/14. Had we not scaled in, the total loss would have been in excess of 16%. This is part of the risk-managed power of scaling in.
In addition, as we were fully invested in TMV we avoided long investments in the SPXL which has suffered greater than 16% losses throughout this same period.
The method generally produces an 80% win-rate but losses do occur. At least 65% of the time, losses that are generated when moving from a bearish to bullish market call tend to indicate a very strong trend change.
DUST Alert for 01/28/14
% Signal
Open Date
Close Date
Open Target Price
Close Target Price
10%
01/13/14
01/28/14
$36.52
$31.50
Total Loss: -1.37%
SPXL Alert for 01/13/14
% Signal
Open Date
Close Date
Open Target Price
Close Target Price
10%
01/03/14
01/13/14
$62.13
$61.76
20%
01/07/14
01/13/14
$62.42
$61.76
Total Loss: -0.27%
DUST Alert for 01/10/14
% Signal
Open Date
Close Date
Open Target Price
Close Target Price
10%
01/03/14
01/10/14
$38.58
$39.36
Total Gain: 0.20%
DUST Alert for 12/31/13
% Signal
Open Date
Close Date
Open Target Price
Close Target Price
10%
12/26/13
12/31/13
$44.31
$46.36
20%
12/30/13
12/31/13
$45.97
$46.36
Total Gain: 0.63%
TMV Alert for 12/27/13
% Signal
Open Date
Close Date
Open Target Price
Close Target Price
10%
12/11/13
12/27/13
$70.85
$72.69
20%
12/23/13
12/27/13
$69.44
$72.69
Total Gain: 1.19%
DUST Alert for 12/20/13
% Signal
Open Date
Close Date
Open Target Price
Close Target Price
10%
12/10/13
12/20/13
$41.64
$49.68
20%
12/11/13
12/20/13
$43.63
$49.68
Total Gain: 4.7%
SPXL Alert for 12/19/13
% Signal
Open Date
Close Date
Open Target Price
Close Target Price
10%
12/12/13
12/19/13
$56.68
$59.48
Total Gain: 0.49%
