TMF Alert for 02/12/14
% Signal
Open Date
Close Date
Open Target Price
Close Target Price
10%
02/06/14
02/26/14
$50.36
$51.47
20%
02/07/14
02/26/14
$50.28
$51.47
30%
02/12/14
02/26/14
$49.23
$51.47
40%
02/13/14
02/26/14
$49.94
$51.47
Total Profit: 3.28%
Commentary
Treasuries have blasted through important layers of resistance, and while they may take a breather, the model continues to call for a scaling into a long position with TMF.
As of the most recent alert, the model is calling for 100% exposure to TMF.
TMV Alert for 02/05/14
% Signal
Open Date
Close Date
Open Target Price
Close Target Price
10%
12/31/13
02/05/14
$72.61
$61.03
20%
01/07/14
02/05/14
$70.74
$61.03
30%
01/08/14
02/05/14
$71.43
$61.03
40% with kicker
01/13/14
02/05/14
$66.70
$61.03
Total Loss: -11.69%
Commentary
As indicated in our broader market view published in Wealth Building Ideas, it has been our gowing belief that the market was preparing to shift direction with Treasuries showing a “bottoming” effect.
Precisely predicting such turning points is nearly impossible and at best one can look in the rear-view mirror and say, “Of course it would happen right here”…
So with Treasuries still in a “bearish” mode we opened short positions through TMV scaling in from 12/31/13 through to 01/13/14. Had we not scaled in, the total loss would have been in excess of 16%. This is part of the risk-managed power of scaling in.
In addition, as we were fully invested in TMV we avoided long investments in the SPXL which has suffered greater than 16% losses throughout this same period.
The method generally produces an 80% win-rate but losses do occur. At least 65% of the time, losses that are generated when moving from a bearish to bullish market call tend to indicate a very strong trend change.
TMV Alert for 12/27/13
% Signal
Open Date
Close Date
Open Target Price
Close Target Price
10%
12/11/13
12/27/13
$70.85
$72.69
20%
12/23/13
12/27/13
$69.44
$72.69
Total Gain: 1.19%
TMV Alert for 11/27/13
% Signal
Open Date
Close Date
Open Target Price
Close Target Price
10%
11/27/13
12/3/13
$69.41
$70.32
Total Gain: 0.13%
